COVID and the Vaccine Diplomacy

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CWA # 483, 7 June 2021
COVID and the Vaccine Diplomacy
Though the US is late to the race, it has an edge. Three reasons why

  Julia Mathew

The enormous production capacity, dwindling domestic demand and greater demand outside will definitely aid US vaccine diplomacy efforts

On 17 May, President Joe Biden announced that the US would send 20 million doses of the federally authorized coronavirus vaccines in addition to the 60 million AstraZeneca vaccines pledged last month. He stated: "We want to lead the world with our values, with this demonstration of our innovation and ingenuity, and the fundamental decency of the American people. Just as in World War II America was the arsenal of democracy, in the battle against the Covid-19 pandemic our nation's going to be the arsenal of vaccines for the rest of the world." 

In addition, the US had pledged USD 4 billion to the COVAX initiative and also announced that it would export 10 per cent of Covid vaccine supplies for its domestic use by 4 July. Biden has promised active participation in QUAD to ensure greater production and equitable rollout of vaccines to all countries. The US also backed the IP rights waiver for Covid vaccines, which was regarded as a monumental moment in the fight against Covid 19 by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom.
 
Three reasons explaining the US edge in vaccine diplomacy
First, the efficacy rates for Chinese vaccines are not high. China has exported more doses of vaccines than the other powers combined, but the actual efficacy for Chinese vaccines are strikingly lower than its competitors. China reported 79 per cent efficacy for the Sinopharm vaccine, but a Brazilian study reported only 50 per cent efficacy. An interim study by Peru recorded only 33 per cent. On the other hand, US vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna recorded 95 per cent and 94.5 per cent, respectively. Refusal rates for Chinese vaccines are also higher, especially in countries like Brazil and Hungary. Global preference of Western vaccines may also boost the demand for US vaccines at the cost of Chinese vaccine demands. 

The recent approval of the Chinese Sinopharm for emergency use by the WHO will serve as a big boost for the Chinese vaccine diplomacy, but vaccine shortage may complicate the task of vaccinating the world's most populous state while pursuing an ambitious export programme. Chinese aims to inoculate 40 per cent of the population by the end June may affect the speed of supply and supply itself, the factors which gave an initial boost to its soft power diplomacy. According to Yanzhong Huang: "This should be golden time for China to practice vaccine diplomacy. The problem is at the same time, China is itself facing a shortage." 

Second, limited manufacturing capacity greatly hinders the Russian efforts. The significant advantage of Sputnik V is that its effectiveness is much higher than AstraZeneca, Sinopharm and Sinovac. Another major advantage of Sputnik V is its low price. It can also be stored at higher temperatures, unlike Pfizer and Moderna, which requires minus 70 and minus 20 degrees, respectively. However, the real issue that underscores the competitive advantage of Russian vaccine diplomacy is the limited production capacity. Russian laboratories have experience in the development of the vaccine, but it has not built an industrial scale of production of technological products since the time of the USSR and does face infrastructural deficiencies. 
Inability to produce and the delay in fulfilling promises inhibit Russian efforts. On the other hand, despite a slow start, US vaccine manufacturers are greatly ramping up production by increasing production capacity, improving on sophisticated technology, making certain raw materials on their own and reducing the delay in production.  

Third, the faster mutation of the virus leading to deadlier variants is now grappling the world. The world is now confronting a new wave of COVID-19 virus with deadlier variants that badly affect children and youth despite about 1.2 billion shots given. India's Vaccine, which was an attractive option for the developing world, is also failing and has led to greater dissatisfaction as commercial deals with countries that have already paid for the vaccine is not being effectuated. New Delhi froze its export in March to prioritize the crisis at home. India may not be able to export vaccines till the end of the year. As India battles a horrific surge of coronavirus case at home, its effect is also spilling over to its neighbours.
 
To conclude... 
The Biden administration has finally bid goodbye to Trump's "The America First Policy" to embrace the Biden style America First,  in pursuit of the "America is Back" as promised. US policy of inoculating its population first has paid off, allowing it to shift attention abroad as the other powers are struggling and more deadly and transmissible variant of virus gains a stronger base. The vaccine vacuum left by western powers gave a head start to Russian, Chinese and Indian vaccine diplomacy, but it is far behind in vaccinating its own population.  

The enormous production capacity, dwindling domestic demand and greater demand outside will definitely aid US vaccine diplomacy efforts. Despite a late start, a consistent supply of reliable and efficient vaccines would ensure that the US lead the vaccine diplomacy race. 
 

About the author

Julia Mathew is a postgraduate scholar at the Department of Political Science in Madras Christian College. Her areas of interest are India's Foreign Policy, South Asian geopolitics, and cultural diplomacy.

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